2010 Smolensk Air Disaster: A Banal Execution
On April 10th, 2010, tragedy would strike the Polish nation. A Polish Air Force Tu-154 belonging to the 36th Special Aviation Regiment, carrying components of the uppermost echelons of the Polish legislature, executive branch, national-security apparatus, and national bank, would crash on approach to a Russian military airfield in Smolensk. The Polish President Lech Kaczyński, belonging to the Law and Justice Party (PiS) was traveling to attend his own ceremony to commemorate the massacre of Poles at Katyn during the Second World War. This was three days after his Prime Minister (who belonged to a different party, the Civic Platform or PO) had traveled and met with Putin in his own ceremony for Katyn.
The official story outlining the causes of the crash can be summarised as follows: human error and technical error. Supposedly there was an issue with the altimeter, there were issues with communication between the cockpit and air tower control (ATC) due to the language barrier between Polish and Russian. Furthermore, the Polish Airforce Commander kept entering the cockpit and pressuring the pilots (also members of the air force) to land despite adverse conditions (fog). You can search for more, but the jist is that plane clips a tree, flips upside-down, and crashes. The banality of the situation makes it all the more digestible, just a bunch of Poles in an old plane. A plane which only a little over 4-months prior had received extensive repairs and renovation in Russia.
Since then, conspiracies have naturally been considered as a possibility. When composing this, I decided it would be best to utilise a timeline to best illustrate and contextualise what may have occurred.
2005 - Loan for Nord Stream
“Perhaps most visibly, a former German chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has embraced commerce as a means to integrate Russia with Europe. Mr. Schröder was the deal’s “power broker,” says Zeyno Baran, an authority on Eurasian energy at the conservative Hudson Institute in New York. “Without him, it never would have gotten off the ground.”
Mr. Schröder’s government sealed the pipeline deal, including a $1.46 billion German loan guarantee for the project, scant weeks before he lost the 2005 election.”
[...]
“ few weeks later, he took a job as the chairman of Nord Stream. He has said he decided to take the job after leaving office and that he had not known of the loan guarantee.
Mr. Warnig, the project’s chief executive, served as a captain in the foreign intelligence directorate of the East German secret police, the Stasi, in the 1980s. At the time, Vladimir V. Putin, the future Russian president and prime minister, was a K.G.B. agent in Dresden, East Germany.”
2006 - European Interests and the Polish Veto
In the revised TEN-E guidelines, Nord Stream is upgraded to a “project of European interest”. In line with the Espoo convention, an international consultation process starts. NEGPC is renamed Nord Stream AG and the company’s headquarters open in Zug, Switzerland. Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, assumes a majority-stake.
“The planned new partnership deal includes EU demands for better and secure access to Russia's vast oil and gas resources and Russian commitments to secure energy supplies into the 25-member bloc -- the biggest consumers of Russian oil.”
“However, some diplomats have said the EU should have come to the aid of one of its members earlier than one year after a trade embargo was slapped on it.”
“"Poland is right to raise the issue," Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said earlier this week. "Poland needs support in the trade dispute, and we share their concerns. Russia's tendency to link trade with politics is not acceptable."”
2007 - Poland Blocks Ascension Talks
“Poland further increased its counter-pressure by blocking a preliminary stage of Moscow’s OECD accession talks and by threatening to block Russia’s WTO accession.”
This occurs as part of an agricultural dispute. Additionally, the supply contracts for the first line's pipe are signed.
October - PO wins Parliamentary elections
The Civic Platform (PO) wins the most seats in parliament, however, Law and Justice (PiS) retains de-facto control of the Presidency (which has the ability to veto)
2008 to 2009 - Gasunie Joins, More Contracts, Permits, and Assessments
Gasunie joins the Nord Stream consortium as the fourth shareholder. Supply contracts for concrete weight coating and logistics and pipe laying are closed.
Norwegian researcher Bendik Solum Whist noted that Nord Stream AG was incorporated in Switzerland, "whose strict banking secrecy laws makes the project less transparent than it would have been if based within the EU".[107] Secondly, the Russian energy sector "in general lacks transparency" and Gazprom "is no exception"
Submission of national permit applications for construction and operation and materials for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs). Poland has no say in the matter as they are only an affected state, not a principle nor signatory.
December 2009 - Government VIP Tu-154 is returned following repairs
More importantly, the Government VIP Tu-154 which later crashed is returned to Poland on December 23rd of 2009, after receiving extensive repairs and renovations. It would be certified for 6 years of operation or 5,000 flight hours for the engines by the Interstate Aviation Committee. Furthermore, it was guaranteed a service life of at least 6 years, 5,000 flight hours, and 4,500 landings by the aircraft manufacturer (Tupolev).
7 April 2010
Polish Prime Minister (PO) Donald Tusk flies to meet with Putin and commemorate the Katyn massacre.
10 April 2010
The crash occurs. Polish President Lech Kaczyński and 95 others are killed when the Tu-154 crashes into the ground while on approach to the Russian military airfield. Strangely, a video surfaces showing the supposed wreckage of the aircraft in the immediate aftermath of the crash. Even in this version, five gunshots can be heard to ring-out. Official investigation supports this, however they omit the shouting in Polish and Russian. The official story is that these gunshots were simply the ammunition of Polish BOR (Government protection agency, later disbanded after this tragedy) agents cooking off in the heat of the wreckage.
Here is an enhanced version - note that it is not my video nor channel.
Oddly enough, the gunshots take on what is a seemingly deliberate pattern, erupting only after a period of shouting is heard in both languages. Strange, huh?
Later in 2010
Signing of pipe supply contracts for the second line. Nord Stream completes Phase I financing and construction of the first line starts in April. In June, GDF SUEZ joins the Nord Stream consortium, with a share of 9 percent.
June
Russian soldiers are charged with theft of items from the scene of the crash. In keeping with the slowness, irregularities, and general haphazardness of the crash investigation and control of the scene.
Presidential elections are held in Poland, with PO coming out victorious as Bronislaw Komorowski wins the Presidency.
October
Eugeniusz Wróbel, a former PiS Deputy Minister of Transportation, who was the first to give the opinion that such a degree of damage to the Tu-154M does not indicate a collision with the ground, is reported missing. His body is found. Allegedly his son (who had psychiatric problems) brutally killed his father, then dismembered his body, wrapped it in rolls of wallpaper, and threw it into a tank near the Rybnik Power Plant. The son would later recant his confession, and be declared mentally unfit for trial. Wróbel was killed three days before the "MAK" report was released on the causes of the crash. As an expert (He was a university professor and "one of the best experts in computer flight control systems in Poland", serving on the supervisory board of LOT Airlines)
Shockingly, further human remains are discovered, demonstrating again a failure to fully examine the scene and conduct a truly exhaustive investigation.
2011
Nord Stream completes Phase II financing with 26 banks in March. Commissioning of the first line and start of gas deliveries in November. Second line is commissioned in October, transport capacity doubles to 55 billion cubic meters per year.
In Poland, parliamentary elections are held and PO wins again. Donald Tusk retains the office of Prime Minister.
February
Allegations begin to arise that Poland's internal security agency had spied on the late President Kaczkynski, starting with his state visit to Georgia in 2008.
October
General Konstantiv Moriev, the Russian FSB head for the Tver region, is found to have committed suicide in his office with his service pistol, with no note left behind. Moriev was responsible for having conducted the initial interrogations/interviews of the air traffic controllers and other personnel involved.
2012
January
Colonel Mikolaj Przybyl, a Polish military prosecutor attempts to commit suicide (he survived the attempt) in his office with his service pistol. This is somewhat caught on camera as he had only just given a press briefing when he asked journalists to leave the room. He was involved in exposing financial corruption in the military as well as the Smolensk investigation leaks which alleged explosive residue was found on seatbelts. Reports show he was stalked, his house broken into, and one report I can’t find now but they killed his dog. Claims he has a ~800k bounty on his head.
June
General Sławomir Petelicki found to have hung himself in his garage, no note left behind. He was responsible for leaking text communications of PO members in the immediate aftermath of the crash, showing orchestrated narrative being strung. He was an old school soldier, having first been deployed to Vietnam in 1971 and later forming and commanding Poland’s first SOF contingent, GROM, in the ‘90s.
October
Corporal (ret.) Remigiusz Muś, a witness present at Smolensk at the time of the crash is found to have committed suicide by hanging in his basement, no note left behind. He was an engineer on a Yak-40 which had landed prior to the crash) heard radio chatter which contradicted official findings. Alleged that the commission was wrong, and claimed to have heard commands to descend to 50m by ATC (as opposed to 100m as maintained in official findings, it should be noted Muś had a perfect command of Russian) as well as having heard three explosions (!) before the Tu-154 crashed.
2015 - Elections in Poland
PiS returns to power, securing a hold over Parliament, the Senate, and the Presidency. The late President Lech Kaczyński's twin brother, Jarosław Kaczyński is widely regarded as the "power behind the throne".
12 March
EU includes a provision in a resolution against Russia’s murder of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov which called for Russia to return black boxes and wreckage.
2018 - News Findings Suggest Explosion Before Crash
The new committee established by the PiS Government would in April present findings and recreations which suggested that a thermobaric charge may have been detonated aboard the aircraft. This reinforces earlier claims made by Crash Investigator Frank Taylor.
Since Then...
- The black boxes have never been returned, only recorded excerpts/transcripts have been provided by Russian authorities to new Polish investigation.
- These records they've provided have been obviously tampered with, as chunks of time are missing from them.
- Bodies exhumed were found to have been misidentified.
- Poles lodged a complaint with the German energy regulator over Nord Stream 2 regulation.
- Polish anti-trust watchdog has fined Gazprom $7.6 billion USD over Nord Stream 2.
Theory:
The Russians caused the crash, via pre-planned sabotage. They could have planted small thermobaric charge(s) while the aircraft was being repaired and renovated by Tupolev. This is supported by the findings of the new commission and makes sense as the report and wreckage showed a door had been blasted clean off from the fuselage, with human remains and entrails smeared on it. This, coupled with Remigiusz Muś's claims of ATC ordered the Tu-154 to descend to 50 meters as opposed to 100 meters, would explain why the debris field of the wreckage was rather contained and not strewn as far apart as the initial official story leads us to believe would occur with an explosion. Potentially, as shown in the video of the crash site, survivors were then killed by Russian intelligence officers who are claimed to have been present (and are likely heard in the video).
Motive:
Consider the backgrounds of these people:
The former German chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia, who enjoy a warm personal relationship, are seen as the prime movers behind the deal. Schroeder’s government approved the deal — and provided nearly $1.5 billion in loan guarantees to Gazprom — just weeks before he lost the 2005 election. A few weeks before the defeat, Schroeder accepted a job as chairman of Nord Stream.
Matthias Warnig, Nord Stream’s chief executive, is a former member of the Stasi, East Germany’s notorious secret police, and served as a senior officer in the foreign intelligence section during the same years that Putin was a top KGB agent in East Germany.
We also know that Stasi, and therefore presumably the Soviets (now Russians) knew about Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor and Schroeder's successor. She is proficient in Russian, and we know that the Stasi tried to utilise her as a pawn.
Gazprom and Nord Stream AG are both owned and operated by oligarchs. These oligarchs are those you likely don't know about, or rarely hear mention of. They inherited their wealth and climbed to power in the wake of the Soviet and Eastern Bloc's collapse. Their tentacles reach and control elements within Germany and other European countries.
These oligarchs secured this pipeline, to compartmentalize their European pipeline infrastructure, as many energy security and international relations experts have highlighted there is no reason to believe Russia would hesitate in using European energy consumption as an instrument of foreign policy. In doing so, Russia can choose to shut off Eastern Europe from energy (Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Baltics) without affecting the remainder of Europe's access to Russian gas and oil, and vice versa.
In the lead up to the crash in 2010, Poland had continually been challenging Nord Stream, as well as Russia on the diplomatic stage. The Polish government wanted an alternative to the Baltic Undersea pipeline project:
"Instead, [Polish Economy Minister Waldemar] Pawlak said Russia should support the idea of building a new stretch of a pipeline to Germany via Poland and Belarus, known as Yamal-Europe-2. Russia has dismissed the plan, saying there was no economic justification.
Pawlak said the land-based Yamal-Europe-2 was more secure than a subsea project. Poland, along with Sweden and the Baltic republics, fears possible environmental dangers associated with Nord Stream."
Another alternative that may have been discussed was a potential Black Sea line, during the late Polish President's visit to Georgia (as mentioned above, recall that he was spied upon allegedly while there). Since PiS has returned to power, there have been talks with Azerbaijan to develop energy infrastructure connecting Poland as well as the Visegrad group via pipeline in the Black Sea. This would be a component of China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Also recall that in 2008, the Russian Federation would invade the Republic of Georgia, as part of a new reactionary foreign policy under the directive of Putin and the oligarchs, as NATO and the "West" (EU) were encroaching closer and closer. The former USSR's buffer zone of client states was no more. So many countries joined the EU after the downfall of the Soviet bloc. The United States had intervened in a traditional Russian sphere of influence (Balkans, Kosovo 1999), expanded NATO, decimated Iraq, and now were seemingly encroaching in the Caucuses.
What marked the beginning of a new, reactive, and far more aggressive foreign policy has been seen since from the oligarchs. They are afraid of "colour revolutions", of liberalisation of economy and institution of proper rule of law in Russia. They call in favours and exercise connections from the past to achieve scary things. Things would culminate in the 2010 Smolensk air disaster. A message and signal to the Poles that not even their Government was safe, and that they could get away with it too because the gas must flow.
Think about it, since then we have witnessed a colour revolution in the Maidan, Ukraine. Numerous Russian opposition leaders and critics silenced/suicided/poisoned in Russia and abroad. A renewed "culture war" in Poland, Russia playing an active role in Libya further exacerbating the migrant crisis, Brexit, the waves of populism across Europe. This could all be a concerted effort by various state-actors, working towards what the Russian oligarchs desire, a multi-polar world in which they have a freer hand to do what they wish.
And in the years between the crash and the re-election of a PiS government, so many key figures, as well as witnesses, were either killed or commit suicide. The black boxes were never returned and tampered with. The wreckage was never properly secured or sheltered. It has laid exposed and in the open for years, with theft occurring and remains still being discovered months later. Even if they got the wreckage, and the black boxes, who is to stay anything worth while would even remain?
TD;DR
OLIGARCHS RESPONSIBLE FOR 2010 SMOLENSK AIR DISASTER
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracytheories/comments/lhe8no/2010_smolensk_air_disaster_a_banal_execution/
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